1.Optimal predictor schemes
post by Vanessa Kosoy 1462 days ago | Jim Babcock and Jessica Taylor like this | 2 comments

I introduce the concept of “optimal predictor scheme” which differs from (quasi)optimal predictors in depending on an additional parameter representing the amount of computing resources the predictor is allowed to use. For a certain flavor of optimal predictor scheme, I prove existence for arbitrary distributional decision problems.

## Results

It is convenient to think of the concepts of “optimal predictor” and “quasi-optimal predictor” as special cases of the more general $$\Delta$$-optimal predictors corresponding to different choices of the “error space” $$\Delta$$.

 2. Binary Search UDT link by Jonathan Lee 1462 days ago | Jim Babcock and Patrick LaVictoire like this | 1 comment
3.A Counterexample to an Informal Conjecture on Proof Length and Logical Counterfactuals
post by Sam Eisenstat 1463 days ago | Jim Babcock, Abram Demski, Patrick LaVictoire and Scott Garrabrant like this | 1 comment
 4. The shutdown problem link by Sune Kristian Jakobsen 1466 days ago | Jim Babcock, Abram Demski and Patrick LaVictoire like this | discuss
5.Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty: Concrete Failure of the Solomonoff Approach
post by Scott Garrabrant 1466 days ago | Jim Babcock, Abram Demski, Jessica Taylor and Patrick LaVictoire like this | discuss

This post is part of the Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty series. In this post, I give a concrete example of how the Solomonoff Induction Inspired Aproach fails to converge to the correct probabilities when predicting the output of a simple Turing machine.

6.The AI, the best human advisor
post by Stuart Armstrong 1468 days ago | Jim Babcock and Jessica Taylor like this | 4 comments

A putative new idea for AI control; index here.

 7. Fixed point theorem in the finite and infinite case discussion post by Victoria Krakovna 1475 days ago | Jim Babcock and Patrick LaVictoire like this | discuss
 8. Paraconsistent Tiling Agents (Very Early Draft) link by Kaya Stechly 1570 days ago | Jim Babcock, Benja Fallenstein, Jessica Taylor, Nate Soares and Patrick LaVictoire like this | 5 comments

### NEW DISCUSSION POSTS

[Note: This comment is three
 by Ryan Carey on A brief note on factoring out certain variables | 0 likes

There should be a chat icon
 by Alex Mennen on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 0 likes

Apparently "You must be
 by Jessica Taylor on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 1 like

There is a replacement for
 by Alex Mennen on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 1 like

Regarding the physical
 by Vanessa Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

I think that we should expect
 by Vanessa Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

I think I understand your
 by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

This seems like a hack. The
 by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

After thinking some more,
 by Vanessa Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Yes, I think that we're
 by Vanessa Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

My intuition is that it must
 by Vanessa Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

To first approximation, a
 by Vanessa Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Actually, I *am* including
 by Vanessa Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Yeah, when I went back and
 by Alex Appel on Optimal and Causal Counterfactual Worlds | 0 likes

> Well, we could give up on
 by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes