by Jessica Taylor 11 days ago | link | parent Note: I currently think that the basic picture of getting within $$\epsilon$$ of a good prediction is actually pretty sketchy. I wrote about the sample complexity here. Additional to the sample complexity issues, the requirement is for predictors to be Bayes-optimal, but Bayes-optimality is not possible for bounded reasoners. This is important because e.g. some adversarial predictor might make very good predictions on some subset of questions (because it’s spending its compute on those specifically), causing other predictors to be filtered out (if those questions are used to determine who the best predictor is). I don’t know what kind of analysis could get the $$\epsilon$$-accuracy result at this point.

### NEW DISCUSSION POSTS

Note: I currently think that
 by Jessica Taylor on Predicting HCH using expert advice | 0 likes

Counterfactual mugging
 by Jessica Taylor on Doubts about Updatelessness | 0 likes

What do you mean by "in full
 by David Krueger on Doubts about Updatelessness | 0 likes

It seems relatively plausible
 by Paul Christiano on Maximally efficient agents will probably have an a... | 1 like

I think that in that case,
 by Alex Appel on Smoking Lesion Steelman | 1 like

 by Sam Eisenstat on No Constant Distribution Can be a Logical Inductor | 1 like

A: While that is a really
 by Alex Appel on Musings on Exploration | 0 likes

> The true reason to do
 by Jessica Taylor on Musings on Exploration | 0 likes

 by Vadim Kosoy on Musings on Exploration | 1 like

I'm not convinced exploration
 by Abram Demski on Musings on Exploration | 0 likes

Update: This isn't really an
 by Alex Appel on A Difficulty With Density-Zero Exploration | 0 likes

If you drop the
 by Alex Appel on Distributed Cooperation | 1 like

Cool! I'm happy to see this
 by Abram Demski on Distributed Cooperation | 0 likes

Caveat: The version of EDT
 by 258 on In memoryless Cartesian environments, every UDT po... | 2 likes

[Delegative Reinforcement
 by Vadim Kosoy on Stable Pointers to Value II: Environmental Goals | 1 like