Intelligent Agent Foundations Forumsign up / log in
Open Problems Regarding Counterfactuals: An Introduction For Beginners
link by Alex Appel 458 days ago | Vadim Kosoy, Tsvi Benson-Tilsen, Vladimir Nesov and Wei Dai like this | 2 comments


by Vadim Kosoy 414 days ago | link

Typos on page 5:

  • “random explanation” should be “random exploration”
  • “Alpa” should be “Alpha”

reply

by Vadim Kosoy 414 days ago | link

Note that the problem with exploration already arises in ordinary reinforcement learning, without going into “exotic” decision theories. Regarding the question of why humans don’t seem to have this problem, I think it is a combination of

  • The universe is regular (which is related to what you said about “we can’t see any plausible causal way it could happen”), so a Bayes-optimal policy with a simplicity prior has something going for it. On the other hand, sometimes you do need to experiment, so this can’t be the only explanation.

  • Any individual human has parents that teach em things, including things like “touching a hot stove is dangerous.” Later in life, ey can draw on much of the knowledge accumulated by human civilization. This tunnels the exploration into safe channels, analogously to the role of the advisor in my recent posts.

  • One may say that the previous point only passes the recursive buck, since we can consider all of humanity to be the “agent”. From this perspective, it seems that the universe just happens to be relatively safe, in the sense that it’s pretty hard for an individual human to do something that will irreparably damage all of humanity… or at least it was the case during most of human history.

  • In addition, we have some useful instincts baked in by evolution (e.g. probably some notion of existing in a three dimensional space with objects that interact mechanically). Again, you could zoom further out and say evolution works because it’s hard to create a species that will wipe out all life.

reply



NEW LINKS

NEW POSTS

NEW DISCUSSION POSTS

RECENT COMMENTS

[Note: This comment is three
by Ryan Carey on A brief note on factoring out certain variables | 0 likes

There should be a chat icon
by Alex Mennen on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 0 likes

Apparently "You must be
by Jessica Taylor on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 1 like

There is a replacement for
by Alex Mennen on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 1 like

Regarding the physical
by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

I think that we should expect
by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

I think I understand your
by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

This seems like a hack. The
by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

After thinking some more,
by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Yes, I think that we're
by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

My intuition is that it must
by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

To first approximation, a
by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Actually, I *am* including
by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Yeah, when I went back and
by Alex Appel on Optimal and Causal Counterfactual Worlds | 0 likes

> Well, we could give up on
by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

RSS

Privacy & Terms