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by Abram Demski 129 days ago | Sam Eisenstat and Jack Gallagher like this | link | parent

I think AsDT has a limited notion of convergent problem. It can only handle situations where the optimal strategy is to make the same move each time. Tail-dependence opens this up, partly by looking at the limit of average payoff rather than the limit of raw payoff. This allows us to deal with problems where the optimal strategy is complicated (and even somewhat dependent on what’s done in earlier instances in the sequence).

I wasn’t thinking of it as introducing artificial logical uncertainty, but I can see it that way.



by Sam Eisenstat 128 days ago | link

Yeah, I like tail dependence.

There’s this question of whether for logical uncertainty we should think of it more as trying to “un-update” from a more logically informed perspective rather than trying to use some logical prior that exists at the beginning of time. Maybe you’ve heard such ideas from Scott? I’m not sure if that’s the right perspective, but it’s what I’m alluding to when I say you’re introducing artificial logical uncertainty.

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by Abram Demski 127 days ago | link

I don’t think it’s much like un-updating. Un-updating takes a specific fact we’d like to pretend we don’t know. Plus, the idea there is to back up the inductor. Here I’m looking at average performance as estimated by the latest stage of the inductor. The artificial uncertainty is more like pretending you don’t know which problem in the sequence you’re at.

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