Intelligent Agent Foundations Forumsign up / log in
by Alex Mennen 74 days ago | link | parent

When modeling the incentives to change probabilities of events, it probably makes sense to model the payoff of changing probabilities of events and the cost of changing probabilities of events separately. You’d expect someone to alter the probabilities if they gain more in expectation from the bets than the cost to them of altering the probabilities. If someone bets on an event and changes the probability that it occurs from \(p\) to \(q\), then their expected payoff is \(\frac{q}{p}-1\) times their investment, so if, in a prediction market in which there are \(n\) possible outcomes, the expected payoff you can get from changing the probability distribution from \((p_1,...,p_n)\) to \((q_1,...,q_n)\) is proportional to \(\max_i(\frac{q_i}{p_i})-1\).

Modeling the cost of changing a probability distribution seems harder to model, but the Fisher information metric might be a good crude estimate of how difficult you should expect it to be to change the probability distribution over outcomes from one distribution to another.



NEW LINKS

NEW POSTS

NEW DISCUSSION POSTS

RECENT COMMENTS

I have stopped working on
by Scott Garrabrant on Cooperative Oracles: Introduction | 0 likes

The only assumptions about
by Vadim Kosoy on Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning | 0 likes

So this requires the agent's
by Tom Everitt on Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning | 0 likes

If the agent always delegates
by Vadim Kosoy on Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning | 0 likes

Hi Vadim! So basically the
by Tom Everitt on Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning | 0 likes

Hi Tom! There is a
by Vadim Kosoy on Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning | 0 likes

Hi Alex! I agree that the
by Vadim Kosoy on Cooperative Oracles: Stratified Pareto Optima and ... | 0 likes

That is a good question. I
by Tom Everitt on CIRL Wireheading | 0 likes

Adversarial examples for
by Tom Everitt on CIRL Wireheading | 0 likes

"The use of an advisor allows
by Tom Everitt on Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning | 0 likes

If we're talking about you,
by Wei Dai on Current thoughts on Paul Christano's research agen... | 0 likes

Suppose that I, Paul, use a
by Paul Christiano on Current thoughts on Paul Christano's research agen... | 0 likes

When you wrote "suppose I use
by Wei Dai on Current thoughts on Paul Christano's research agen... | 0 likes

> but that kind of white-box
by Paul Christiano on Current thoughts on Paul Christano's research agen... | 0 likes

>Competence can be an
by Wei Dai on Current thoughts on Paul Christano's research agen... | 0 likes

RSS

Privacy & Terms