by Jessica Taylor 677 days ago | link | parent Because of the specific time restriction, there is no way to randomise the outcome ahead of time. And because it’s assumed tied to a specific physical event, there is no way to influence it at all. The whole physical definition and apparatus serve the purpose of making biasing the only way to affect the result. Hmm, I don’t understand. Of course it is possible to influence the button push without biasing it (e.g. create a robot that flips a coin and then pushes or doesn’t push the button). And of course it’s not possible to influence the quantum event in any way (including by biasing it). So I don’t see any event that can’t be influenced in any way except by biasing it.

 by Stuart Armstrong 676 days ago | link The way I’m using the term, unbiased influence involves replacing the stochastic event with another one that has same mean. But since (or if) the quantum event is specifically defined in the process, this can’t be done. reply
 by Jessica Taylor 676 days ago | link Let me ask a more specific question. In your setup with the quantum event $$Q$$ and the button $$B$$, can you define the event $$E$$ such that: The agent can influence $$E$$ by biasing $$E$$. The agent can’t influence $$E$$ without biasing $$E$$. Clearly, $$E \neq Q$$ and $$E \neq B$$, so I don’t know what $$E$$ is. (I interpreted you as saying there is such an $$E$$; let me know if this is incorrect) reply
 by Stuart Armstrong 669 days ago | link You are correct and I’m wrong. The causal counterfactual is unbiased and uninfluenceable. The evidential counterfactual is both biased and influenceable. I’ll correct the post. reply

NEW DISCUSSION POSTS

[Note: This comment is three
 by Ryan Carey on A brief note on factoring out certain variables | 0 likes

There should be a chat icon
 by Alex Mennen on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 0 likes

Apparently "You must be
 by Jessica Taylor on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 1 like

There is a replacement for
 by Alex Mennen on Meta: IAFF vs LessWrong | 1 like

Regarding the physical
 by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

I think that we should expect
 by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

I think I understand your
 by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

This seems like a hack. The
 by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

After thinking some more,
 by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Yes, I think that we're
 by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

My intuition is that it must
 by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

To first approximation, a
 by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Actually, I *am* including
 by Vadim Kosoy on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes

Yeah, when I went back and
 by Alex Appel on Optimal and Causal Counterfactual Worlds | 0 likes

> Well, we could give up on
 by Jessica Taylor on The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agend... | 0 likes